Your portfolios.

How we calculate this:
Our recession model uses a Random Forest algorithm trained on five Federal Reserve (FRED) macro indicators — GDP growth, unemployment, bank credit, inventory ratios, and federal purchases. It estimates the probability of a recession occurring within the next four quarters.

Why it matters → When recession risk is high, we shift your allocation toward bonds and away from equities. At 50% probability the model is neutral. Above 50% it becomes defensive; below 50% it leans into growth. This makes your portfolio personally tailored to today's macro environment, not just your risk profile in isolation.