Live market data · Refreshed every 60 seconds

The macro signals your portfolio is watching right now.

Live ETF prices via Yahoo Finance · Macro indicators from FRED · Bitcoin from CoinGecko. Click any card to open the full chart.

🇺🇸 United States

Financial market conditions · Yahoo Finance

🇪🇺 Euro Area

Financial market conditions · Yahoo Finance

Economics & macro indicators

Lintu recession model

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Recession probability

4-quarter forecast

FRED API · RandomForest model

Macro indicators

Federal Reserve FRED API

Monthly macro data

FRED · ECB · national statistics offices

Indicator	Latest	Previous	Change	Signal

Global recession risk · 8 countries

Lintu macro models · FRED · Eurostat · OECD CLI

Low <20% Elevated 20–45% High >45%

EU structural dependency

HP-filter cycle correlation · Ridge partial R² · 10Y rolling window

How much of each country's business cycle is driven by ECB / Brussels vs US financial conditions vs its own structural factors (housing, exports, fiscal)?

Brussels / ECB US spillover Own cycle

Sector overextension · GDP vs market cap

BEA GDP by industry · S&P 500 GICS weights · Damodaran D/E

Energy & physical economy signals

FRED · Eurostat · EIA · physical flow data

Electricity consumption, oil, natural gas and freight — real physical flows that cannot be revised away. Leading US GDP by 1–2 quarters.

Market performance — 6 months

Yahoo Finance · normalised to 100 base

SPY

AGG

EFA

₿ Digital assets

₿ Bitcoin · BTC/USD · CoinGecko API · click to expand

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